Mr. Aggro and the Fearful Kevin

Ameristar Casino, Blackhawk, CO, $1/$2 NL, buy-in: $200

I want to talk about a hand that I played recently, because I think it exemplifies how many different things you have to take into consideration when playing this game that we love so much. Not only do you have to do the appropriate math on any given hand, but you also have to think about how the table is running and what the different interactions are between the different players.

On this occasion it was a Friday night, so there was the expected mix of serious and recreational players, both older and younger. After a few hours at the table I was comfortably up a couple hundred bucks, and I felt like I had good control of my play and a decently aggressive table image. I hadn’t played anything “out of line”, so nobody was trying to come after me and I felt like I was attracting a solid, predictable line of play from the other players. In other words, my play had been solid enough that the other players knew the only way they could beat me was with a good, solid hand, which in turn made my evaluation of their play very easy.

All this changed when a hyper-aggro older man joined the table. He bought in for $200 and dusted it off in about thirty minutes. He was raising with any two cards and calling all the way to the river with them. This immediately put everyone at the table on their heels, including me.

He bought in for another $200 and continued this same line of play. This time, however, he started hitting his hands. I tried to play back at him a couple times, but the cards just weren’t coming for me to continue to punish him after the flop. It got very frustrating.

KEY HAND:

The aggro guy was in the BB and I was in the cut-off. There were three limpers when the action got to me and I decided to limp with As4s. The button and the SB also limped and the BB raised it to $12. One of the limpers called and I called, so we were three-handed to the flop.

My reasoning for making this call was that 1) he had been playing and raising with all sorts of hands, so 2) there was a good chance that I had the best hand, but if I didn’t, then 3) the flop could hit me over the head and I could punish him, but 4) I don’t want to re-raise here because he could still have a real hand and if he comes back over the top, I have to fold. Obviously, if the board bricks or an A comes on the flop and there’s a bet, it’s an easy fold for me.

The flop came out 3c5s7h.

Mr. Aggro immediately bet $100 into the $46 pot and the other caller folded. With the action on me, I tanked. I wanted so badly to play this hand, but my stack had dwindled to about $230, and I was afraid of losing the chips, especially after I had been up so much earlier. I ended up folding and the Mr. Aggro showed KK. However, the more I’ve thought about it, the more I think I should have played, and here’s why:

Obviously, in the face of the $100 bet on the flop, I would have re-raised for my whole stack. There was a good enough chance that I still had the best hand and that he would have folded to make that a good play.

After the flop, I had a double-belly straight draw (8 outs), I think any A on the board would make me good (3 outs), and I could have gone runner-runner flush (8 outs), for a total of 19 outs. By my amateur math, that put me at about 50/50 to win the hand after the flop. If you factor in that I would have had to go runner-runner for the flush, let’s call it 45% that I win.

As we all know, though, the math is just one part of the game. You also have to take into account the table dynamic and whom you’re up against in each hand. In this case I feel like I was almost obligated to play this hand, based on my opponent. He had been pushing and pushing and it was time for someone at the table to really push back. I missed my chance.

What got in the way of making the right decision was my fear of losing my money. In the future, I can’t let my fear of losing cloud my judgment on what I now know would have been both a mathematically, as well as, for lack of a better word, emotionally, correct decision.

I ended up cashing out with a +$50 session, but I’ll always remember this hand and focus on making good decisions, regardless of how much money is involved.